Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 59.541672 66.542715 74.554189 84.523055 96.774353 111.589066 131.266806
2025-02-02 52.557036 62.151818 74.227957 91.050775 114.800772 148.806007 204.972352
2025-02-09 47.312643 57.902743 72.050573 93.305407 126.483939 180.882333 290.781106
2025-02-16 42.925402 53.788524 68.922296 92.956301 133.530446 208.138946 391.212348
2025-02-23 39.691332 50.693623 66.557866 92.969441 140.785519 238.941830 537.064524
2025-03-02 36.523081 47.272231 63.153069 90.514566 142.738890 259.894784 693.101962
2025-03-09 33.992510 44.499491 60.351348 88.500178 144.874079 282.616213 915.269837
2025-03-16 31.211113 41.106987 56.206127 83.464297 139.543822 283.584073 1046.659137
2025-03-23 30.450901 40.690640 56.744195 86.922206 153.383007 348.563336 1996.360360
2025-03-30 28.939260 38.984024 54.974179 85.740333 156.298619 382.033970 3212.356136
2025-04-06 27.519617 37.318213 53.114601 84.106464 157.700334 412.124022 5543.257861
2025-04-13 25.817049 35.101303 50.143673 79.887588 151.525606 407.415424 7064.199897
2025-04-20 25.715811 35.516665 51.883416 85.837984 175.322415 575.864792 NaN
2025-04-27 25.627472 35.954466 53.736619 92.530456 205.550272 886.687614 NaN
2025-05-04 24.961057 35.367829 53.641244 94.843681 223.513565 1215.211874 NaN
2025-05-11 24.042753 34.285600 52.502014 94.485447 232.026600 1521.566895 NaN
2025-05-18 23.246097 33.360092 51.576855 94.498930 242.303689 1994.450571 NaN
2025-05-25 22.249616 32.029383 49.754541 91.980437 241.135551 2265.059808 NaN
2025-06-01 21.375713 30.869442 48.187002 89.914600 241.312150 2643.277341 NaN
2025-06-08 20.248167 29.214782 45.541102 84.753116 225.937908 2364.463954 NaN
2025-06-15 20.055335 29.202252 46.168369 88.296805 252.725943 4680.451481 NaN
2025-06-22 19.424904 28.375660 45.087496 87.085383 256.018525 6300.175552 NaN
2025-06-29 18.792704 27.518522 43.891035 85.411059 256.337173 8185.961013 NaN